India's exports may have touched an all-time high of $422 billion in 2021-22 but recession in key western markets and geo-political crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war are expected to impact the growth of the country's outbound shipments in 2023. All the global trade promoting factors like political stability, movement of goods, adequate availability of containers and shipping lines, demand, stable currency and smooth banking systems are in disarray. Adding to the woes, COVID cases have again started rising in countries like China, Japan, South Korea and the US.
A bill seeking to explicitly ban caste discrimination has been introduced in the California Senate by a Democratic lawmaker, which, if passed, could make America's most populous state also the country's first to outlaw caste-based bias.
'The market will focus on the fact that India does have strong earnings growth this year.'
Ultimately quotas kill talent and true meritocracy, argues R Jagannathan.
A depreciating rupee, which briefly hit 80 to the dollar on Tuesday, may boost India's exports but price-inelastic imports of crude oil and gold would mean limited relief on the trade deficit, which clocked a record $26.2 billion in June. Due to global risk aversion on the back of geo-political tensions and aggressive policy tightening by the Fed, the dollar has appreciated against most currencies, including the rupee. And, with other currencies depreciating, India's comparative advantage in this respect may be limited.
The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Nio conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation. "Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nio conditions in India this year. "If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices," the ministry said in its monthly economic review.
Difficulties in containing the virus, an anaemic policy response, and underlying vulnerabilities, especially across the financial sector, are leading us to expect growth to fall by 5 per cent this fiscal year before rebounding in 2021, S&P said in a report.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5 per cent during its upcoming June 8 announcement, considering the easing of retail inflation in April and the potential for further decline, indicating the effectiveness of previous policy rate actions, anticipate experts. Headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, a meeting of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled for June 6-8. The decision of the 43rd meeting of the MPC would be announced on Thursday, June 8.
'In the last five-six years, at least we could witness some growth, but now that assurance is also gone,' Banerjee told a news channel from the US.
The argument that India is going towards a 'Hindu rate of growth' is "ill-conceived, biased and pre-mature" when weighed against the respective data on savings and investments, said SBI Research in its Ecowrap report. The term Hindu rate of growth was coined by economist Raj Krishna in 1978, which denoted the economic growth of about 3.5-4.0 per cent in terms of GDP during 1947-1980. "India's quarterly sequential Y-o-Y GDP growth has been in a declining trend in FY23.
Claims of a spike in poverty and inequality in India during the Covid-19 pandemic are patently false as such claims are based on uncomparable different surveys, according to a paper co-authored by eminent economist Arvind Panagariya. The paper also noted that inequality fell in the country during Covid years, both in rural and urban areas as well as nationally. Panagariya, Columbia University Professor and former vice chairman of NITI Aayog and Vishal More of Intelink Advisors, New Delhi have co-authored a detailed paper 'Poverty and Inequality in India: Before and After Covid-19'.
Calling RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan's exit a 'bad omen' for the Indian economy, eminent economists and former policymakers on Sunday said it will be seen by the world as India's non-approval to a policy against inflation and bad loans.
In a statement, Pfaff also noted that the countries Netaji had approached were the only ones willing to support the fight against a common adversary.
'Being one of the 150 million upper middle class consumers, I can vouch that the average expenses on white goods or clothing are minimal. Indians are not consumerist by nature,' says Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
S&P Global Ratings on Monday cut India's economic growth forecast for current fiscal year to 7 per cent, but said the domestic demand-led economy will be less impacted by the global slowdown. S&P had in September projected the Indian economy to grow 7.3 per cent in 2022-23 and 6.5 per cent in next fiscal year (2023-24). "The global slowdown will have less impact on domestic demand-led economies such as India... India's output will expand 7 per cent in fiscal year 2022-2023 and 6 per cent in next fiscal year," S&P Global Ratings Asia-Pacific chief economist Louis Kuijs said.
Acharya emphasised that the time is "really ripe" for land, labour and agricultural reforms in India.
Biden, 'plotting an ambitious presidency that would begin amid twin health and economic crises, is leaning on veteran advisers with high-level governmental experience rather than outsiders and ideological rivals to help guide him on subjects including the coronavirus pandemic and the country's diminished standing in the world', a report in The New York Times said.
'It was more than ego.' 'It carried with it a sincere belief that he was the quintessence of the country, that the country's destiny was irrevocably intertwined with his destiny.' An excerpt from T J S George's The Dismantling of India: In 35 Portraits.
Gita Gopinath, the IMF's Indian-American chief economist has been promoted as its First Deputy Managing Director recognising her exceptional intellectual leadership in helping the global economy and the Fund to navigate the "twists and turns" of the "worst economic crisis of our lives". Gopinath would replace Geoffrey Okamoto who plans to leave the International Monetary Fund early next year, Kristalina Georgieva, IMF's managing director announced on Thursday. Gopinath, who was scheduled to return to her academic position at Harvard University in January 2022, has decided to stay, she said. Gopinath, 49, has served as the first female chief economist of the Washington-based global lender for three years.
'An era of fiscal pessimism is setting in, which, if not countered intellectually, is going to have the same effect as export pessimism has had,' notes T C A Srinivasa Raghavan.
This State-corporate 'cooperation' didn't begin with the arrival of the Modi government.
Many of the big licences, contracts, and even environmental clearances for the Adani group had come in the UPA's time, points out Shekhar Gupta.
In stock market parlance, "meme stock" was certainly the word of the year. Coined to mean those stocks that gain sudden popularity on the internet with resultant high prices, it was used to derisively describe the behaviour of retail traders globally who entered the market in huge numbers in the two Covid-19 years. A recent study, "Market Concentration and Retail Participation in India", by the National Stock Exchange economics team led by their chief economist Tirthankar Patnaik shows unlike these impressions, the retail investors, at least in India, have not performed inconsistently.
Amid news of a fuel shortage in some parts of the country and wider unrest over fuel issues in the neighbourhood, an analysis of the data from international tracker globalpetrolprices.com shows that the per litre price of petrol is higher in India than in seven out of its nine neighbours.
'Just see what kind of political, social and economic impact it will have when the number of unemployed goes up four times in one year suddenly.'
Prime Minister Modi took over power in mid-May with high expectations that it would strengthen India's fragile macro economy and faltering investment and growth.
'We cannot afford to be complacent about our food security needs.'
The speed at which he led the central bank in different areas -- ranging from internal reorganisation to inflation fighting, stabilising the currency, taking on rogue corporations, cleaning up bank balance sheets, and opening the sector -- makes one believe that Rajan knew he had only three years to do his job. A fascinating excerpt from Tamal Bandyopadhyay's MUST-READ Roller Coaster: An Affair with Banking.
When it comes to running between the wickets -- which is exactly what an FM and a governor do -- Jadeja always defers to Dhoni's larger judgement of the situation and the needs of the team, observes T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan.
Retail inflation fell to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March, mainly due to a decline in food prices, government data showed on Wednesday. The inflation figure in March is within the RBI's comfort zone as it is below 6 per cent. The retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.44 per cent in February 2023 and 6.95 per cent in the year-ago period.
'With a solid investment programme and sustainable development strategy, India can exceed 7 per cent growth per year, or a doubling of high-quality national income within a decade.'
Uncertainty looms over India's export outlook, with the new Covid-19 variant Omicron spreading rapidly across the country's key shipment destinations. With the US and parts of Europe witnessing more than 100,000 Covid-19 cases a day, exporters expect some disruption. However, there may not be an immediate decline in exports from India because the order books remain strong at least for the next few weeks, they said.
'If private capex has to kick in, there should at least be 2-3 years of visibility.'
'India's manufacturing will take 10-15 years to catch up with China.'
Seven of the meetings will be held in late November or early December at the finance ministry, as is the norm.
'Education is disconnected from social reality and does not even attempt to solve the real problems of our country,' observe Peehu Pardeshi and Sandeep Pandey.
Corporate India is indicating cautious hiring in the March quarter of 2023 as concerns rise over possible recession and steady inflation, a survey said on Thursday. According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, based on interviews with nearly 3,030 public and private employers, hiring intentions will decrease in the quarter both on year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter basis. During the quarter, 48 per cent employers expect to increase their staffing levels, 16 per cent anticipate a decrease in hiring intent and 34 per cent do not anticipate any change in hiring, resulting in a net employment outlook of 32 per cent.
The difference between what the banks play in the US and India is not that of soccer and football but rugby and football. SVB also has a unique character. But when risks are mispriced, the fallout could be very similar, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
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